Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 14.4% | 12.5–18.2% | 12.0–18.9% | 11.7–19.4% | 11.0–20.4% |
| 29 September–12 October 2025 | Gallup International | 17.5% | 15.9–19.2% | 15.5–19.7% | 15.1–20.1% | 14.4–20.9% |
| 13–20 September 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.9–15.4% | 11.6–15.8% | 11.0–16.5% |
| 4–12 September 2025 | Мяра | 13.6% | 12.1–15.3% | 11.7–15.7% | 11.4–16.1% | 10.7–17.0% |
| 11–23 July 2025 | Gallup International | 18.0% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.8–20.3% | 15.4–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| 7–14 July 2025 | Алфа рисърч | 14.0% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.9–16.4% | 11.3–17.1% |
| 9–11 June 2025 | Sova Harris | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| 28 May–4 June 2025 | Gallup International | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 May 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.7–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| 18–30 April 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
12.8% | 11.6–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.1% | 10.3–15.8% |
| 3–13 April 2025 | Мяра | 10.3% | 9.0–11.8% | 8.7–12.2% | 8.4–12.6% | 7.8–13.3% |
| 22–30 March 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
12.8% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.2–15.7% |
| 19–30 March 2025 | Gallup International | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.8% | 12.9–19.6% |
| 10–16 March 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
10.9% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.4–12.6% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.6% |
| 22 February–2 March 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| 13–20 February 2025 | Gallup International | 13.1% | 11.7–14.8% | 11.3–15.2% | 10.9–15.6% | 10.3–16.4% |
| 6–16 February 2025 | Мяра | 10.2% | 8.9–11.7% | 8.5–12.1% | 8.2–12.5% | 7.7–13.2% |
| 25 January–3 February 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
11.0% | 9.8–12.5% | 9.4–12.9% | 9.1–13.3% | 8.6–14.0% |
| 24–30 January 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.5–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| 15–20 January 2025 | Алфа рисърч | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 9.9–13.4% | 9.6–13.7% | 9.1–14.4% |
| 8–12 January 2025 | Gallup International | 14.1% | 12.7–15.8% | 12.2–16.3% | 11.9–16.7% | 11.2–17.6% |
| 12–20 December 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
12.5% | 11.2–14.1% | 10.8–14.6% | 10.5–15.0% | 9.9–15.7% |
| 20–23 October 2024 | Алфа рисърч | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 16–22 October 2024 | Тренд 24 часа |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 19–22 October 2024 | Exacta | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.9–9.0% | 5.5–9.6% |
| 10–21 October 2024 | Gallup International BNR |
7.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.7–10.1% |
| 15–20 October 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 11–17 October 2024 | Sova Harris ПИК |
6.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.2–8.1% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.5–9.1% |
| 8–13 October 2024 | Медиана | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.3% | 4.0–7.8% |
| 28 September–6 October 2024 | Gallup International | 6.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.4–8.9% | 4.9–9.6% |
| 25 September–1 October 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
7.5% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.1–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 17–24 September 2024 | Тренд 24 часа |
5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 18–24 September 2024 | Алфа рисърч | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 14–23 August 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Gallup International БНТ |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–28 July 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 9% | 98% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 21% | 89% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 21% | 68% | Median |
| 14.5–15.5% | 12% | 47% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 8% | 35% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 10% | 27% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 9% | 17% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 29 September–12 October 2025 | Gallup International | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 13–20 September 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 4–12 September 2025 | Мяра | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 11–23 July 2025 | Gallup International | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 7–14 July 2025 | Алфа рисърч | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 9–11 June 2025 | Sova Harris | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 28 May–4 June 2025 | Gallup International | |||||
| 12–18 May 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 18–30 April 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 3–13 April 2025 | Мяра | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| 22–30 March 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 19–30 March 2025 | Gallup International | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 10–16 March 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 22 February–2 March 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 13–20 February 2025 | Gallup International | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 6–16 February 2025 | Мяра | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 25 January–3 February 2025 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| 24–30 January 2025 | Тренд 24 часа |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 15–20 January 2025 | Алфа рисърч | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 8–12 January 2025 | Gallup International | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 12–20 December 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 20–23 October 2024 | Алфа рисърч | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 16–22 October 2024 | Тренд 24 часа |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 19–22 October 2024 | Exacta | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 10–21 October 2024 | Gallup International BNR |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 15–20 October 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 11–17 October 2024 | Sova Harris ПИК |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 8–13 October 2024 | Медиана | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 28 September–6 October 2024 | Gallup International | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 25 September–1 October 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 17–24 September 2024 | Тренд 24 часа |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 18–24 September 2024 | Алфа рисърч | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 14–23 August 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
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| 1–9 August 2024 | Gallup International БНТ |
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| 20–28 July 2024 | Маркет ЛИНКС |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 86% | Median |
| 4 | 18% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |