Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 17–24 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.6% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.8–18.7%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.7%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 35% 100%  
5 63% 65% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 93% 98.8% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 80% 99.6% Median
3 20% 20%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 11% 99.9%  
2 89% 89% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 78% 93% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 66% 92% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 41%  
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3–4 3–4 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 93% 98.8% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations