Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 25 September–1 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.8–18.7%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 75% 98% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 72% 99.9% Median
3 28% 28%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 75% 98% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 52% 53% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 74% 74% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations