Opinion Poll by Gallup International, 28 September–6 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 25.7% 23.8–27.7% 23.2–28.3% 22.8–28.8% 21.9–29.8%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.4% 13.9–17.1% 13.4–17.6% 13.0–18.0% 12.3–18.9%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.8% 8.0–12.2% 7.5–12.9%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.7% 6.9–10.1% 6.6–10.4% 6.1–11.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.1% 5.0–9.7%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 4.9–9.6%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.6% 5.1–7.9% 4.8–8.2% 4.4–8.9%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.7%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 56% 92% Median
6 36% 36%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 87% 98% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 59% 99.9% Median
3 40% 41%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 18% 99.7%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 60% 94% Median
2 33% 33%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 63% 90% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 43% 52% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 84% 85% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 87% 98% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations