Opinion Poll by Медиана, 8–13 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 27.6% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.0% 24.9–30.5% 24.1–31.4%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.4% 14.0–17.0% 13.6–17.5% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.6%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.8%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3 2–4 2–4
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 67% 99.7% Median
6 32% 32%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 94% 97% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 97% 98% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 80% 97% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 43% 99.2%  
2 56% 56% Median
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3 2–4 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 94% 97% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations