Opinion Poll by Sova Harris for ПИК, 11–17 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 25.6% 23.7–27.7% 23.2–28.3% 22.7–28.8% 21.8–29.8%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.5% 13.0–16.2% 12.6–16.7% 12.2–17.1% 11.5–18.0%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 9.8% 8.5–11.2% 8.2–11.6% 7.9–12.0% 7.3–12.8%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.9% 7.7–10.3% 7.4–10.7% 7.1–11.1% 6.6–11.8%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.8% 7.6–10.2% 7.3–10.6% 7.0–10.9% 6.5–11.6%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.4%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.2–8.1% 5.0–8.4% 4.5–9.1%
Величие (*) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 79% 95% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 93% 95% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 95% 98% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 90% 99.4% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 4% 99.9%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 76% 89% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 71% 79% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 80% 80% Median
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 93% 95% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations