Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 15–20 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 27.2% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.9–11.5% 7.4–12.2%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.9%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Величие (*) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.4%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 74% 99.9% Median
6 26% 26%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 82% 99.8% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 33% 99.8%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 23% 99.8%  
2 77% 77% Median
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 25%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 81% 81% Median
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations