Opinion Poll by Gallup International for BNR, 10–21 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.4%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.4%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 64% 99.1% Median
6 35% 35%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 96% 98.8% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 67% 99.9% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 20% 99.1%  
2 79% 79% Median
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 33% 98%  
2 65% 65% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 68% 93% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 52% 60% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 75% 75% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 96% 98.8% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations