Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 16–22 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.6% | 21.5–28.5% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 15.2% | 13.8–16.7% | 13.4–17.1% | 13.1–17.5% | 12.4–18.3% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.7% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Величие (*) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Синя България (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Величие (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Синя България (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 100% | |
| 5 | 81% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 24% | 24% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 47% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 36% | 74% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Синя България (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
Възраждане (ESN)

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Тренд
- Commissioner(s): 24 часа
- Fieldwork period: 16–22 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%