Opinion Poll by Exacta, 19–22 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.6–29.0% 24.2–29.5% 23.4–30.3%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.5% 11.7–17.3%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.3% 7.2–10.6% 6.8–11.2%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.2–10.5%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.6% 6.3–8.9% 6.1–9.2% 5.6–9.8%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.9–9.0% 5.5–9.6%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.5%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.1%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Величие (*) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.1%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 58% 98.8% Median
6 40% 41%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 82% 84% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 90% 99.7% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 29% 99.8%  
2 71% 71% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 61% 95% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 58% 96% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 62% 65% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 82% 84% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations