Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 16–22 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) |
0.0% |
24.9% |
23.2–26.7% |
22.7–27.2% |
22.3–27.6% |
21.5–28.5% |
Възраждане (ESN) |
0.0% |
15.2% |
13.8–16.7% |
13.4–17.1% |
13.1–17.5% |
12.4–18.3% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE) |
0.0% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.1% |
7.5–10.5% |
7.3–10.8% |
6.8–11.4% |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) |
0.0% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.0% |
6.5–9.3% |
6.3–9.6% |
5.8–10.2% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.3% |
Има такъв народ (ECR) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.4–8.0% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.9% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) |
0.0% |
6.5% |
5.6–7.6% |
5.3–7.9% |
5.1–8.2% |
4.7–8.7% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Величие (*) |
0.0% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.8–4.7% |
2.6–4.9% |
2.3–5.4% |
Да, България! (EPP) |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.4–4.7% |
2.2–5.2% |
Демократична България (EPP) |
0.0% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.5–4.1% |
Синя България (ECR) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
10% |
100% |
|
5 |
81% |
90% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
9% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
3 |
96% |
99.1% |
Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
89% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
11% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
67% |
98% |
Median |
2 |
30% |
30% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
72% |
96% |
Median |
2 |
24% |
24% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
47% |
51% |
Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
36% |
74% |
Median |
2 |
39% |
39% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Синя България (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Възраждане (ESN) |
0 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
2–4 |
Възраждане (ESN)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
3 |
96% |
99.1% |
Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Тренд
- Commissioner(s): 24 часа
- Fieldwork period: 16–22 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%