Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 16–22 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.1% 13.1–17.5% 12.4–18.3%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3 3 3–4 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 81% 90% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 96% 99.1% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 89% 99.9% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 67% 98% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 72% 96% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 47% 51% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 36% 74% Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 3 3–4 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 96% 99.1% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations