Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 20–23 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Величие (*) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 81% 92% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 82% 83% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 78% 99.8% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 24% 99.1%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 50% 98.7% Median
2 49% 49%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 69% 92% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 69% 72% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 82% 83% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations