Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 15–20 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 27.7% 25.9–29.6% 25.4–30.2% 24.9–30.7% 24.1–31.6%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9% 11.9–16.3% 11.2–17.1%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 9.9–13.4% 9.6–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.1%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 86% 98.6% Median
6 12% 12%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 75% 75% Median
4 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 81% 98% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 54% 99.5% Median
2 46% 46%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 76% 81% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 75% 75% Median
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations