Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 24–30 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.6% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.0% 24.0–29.4% 23.2–30.3%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.5–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 65% 96% Median
6 31% 31%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 95% 99.8% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 82% 97% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 58% 89% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 47% 71% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 62% 67% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 42%  
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations