Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 25 January–3 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 27.5% 25.6–29.5% 25.1–30.1% 24.6–30.6% 23.8–31.5%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 13.1% 11.7–14.6% 11.3–15.1% 11.0–15.5% 10.4–16.2%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.3% 8.6–14.0%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.8–11.1% 7.6–11.4% 7.0–12.1%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.0–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.1% 5.1–8.4% 4.7–9.0%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.5% 3.3–7.1%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.2–5.5%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.5–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 84% 98% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 67% 100% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 97% 99.8% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 82% 99.1% Median
3 17% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 27% 99.8%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 78% 81% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 67% 100% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations