Opinion Poll by Мяра, 6–16 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.5% 24.5–28.6% 24.0–29.2% 23.5–29.7% 22.6–30.7%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 13.5% 12.0–15.2% 11.6–15.7% 11.3–16.1% 10.6–16.9%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 10.2% 8.9–11.7% 8.5–12.1% 8.2–12.5% 7.7–13.2%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.2–9.8% 6.9–10.2% 6.6–10.5% 6.1–11.2%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.6% 5.3–9.0% 4.9–9.6%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.5–8.5% 5.2–8.8% 4.8–9.5%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.7% 5.1–8.1% 4.9–8.4% 4.5–9.0%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.0–8.4%
Величие (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.2%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 66% 90% Median
6 24% 24%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.4% 100%  
2 95% 98.6% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 75% 98% Median
3 23% 23%  
4 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 60% 85% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 51% 84% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 60% 72% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 47% 53% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations