Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 22 February–2 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.0% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.3% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 25% | 100% | |
| 5 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 100% | |
| 3 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 48% | 48% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 98.5% | Median |
| 2 | 35% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 48% | 48% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Маркет ЛИНКС
- Commissioner(s): bTV
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–2 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 997
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.04%