Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 12–18 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.2% 24.4–28.0% 24.0–28.5% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.5%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 64% 98% Median
6 33% 34%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 85% 86% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 71% 100% Median
3 29% 29%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 68% 99.5% Median
3 31% 31%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 49% 93% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 59% 70% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 47%  
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 46%  
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 85% 86% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations