Opinion Poll by Sova Harris, 9–11 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Величие (*) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Величие (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 11% 100%  
5 72% 89% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 81% 82% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 87% 99.2% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 72% 90% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 42%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 81% 82% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations