Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 5–12 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 24.7% 22.9–26.6% 22.4–27.2% 21.9–27.7% 21.1–28.6%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 13.4% 12.0–15.0% 11.6–15.4% 11.3–15.8% 10.6–16.6%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 12.3% 11.0–13.9% 10.6–14.3% 10.3–14.7% 9.7–15.5%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0.0% 10.8% 9.6–12.3% 9.2–12.7% 8.9–13.1% 8.4–13.8%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.3–7.4% 3.9–8.0%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.5% 3.2–7.0%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1% 3.5–6.4% 3.2–6.9%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–6.0% 2.9–6.5%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.4%
Величие (*) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 75% 85% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 21% 100%  
3 79% 79% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 65% 78% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 45%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 21% 100%  
3 79% 79% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations