Opinion Poll by Мяра, 9–15 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Партия на Румен Радев (*) 0.0% 33.3% 31.2–35.4% 30.6–36.0% 30.1–36.6% 29.1–37.6%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 18.8% 17.2–20.7% 16.7–21.2% 16.3–21.7% 15.5–22.6%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0.0% 10.7% 9.4–12.2% 9.1–12.7% 8.8–13.0% 8.2–13.8%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–9.0% 6.2–9.3% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.3%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.4%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.2% 2.3–5.7%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.8%
Величие (*) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.3% 1.1–3.8%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Партия на Румен Радев (*) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Възраждане (ESN) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Да, България! (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Партия на Румен Радев (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Партия на Румен Радев (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 17% 100%  
7 76% 83% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0% Majority

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 84% 92% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 75% 99.8% Median
3 25% 25%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 82% 91% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 56% 85% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 49%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 21%  
2 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 56% 85% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations