Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 12–18 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (*) 0.0% 32.7% 30.9–34.7% 30.3–35.2% 29.9–35.7% 29.0–36.7%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.8%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0.0% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Величие (*) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (*) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Възраждане (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Прогресивна България (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 19% 100%  
7 79% 81% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0% Majority

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 84% 98.9% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 99.0%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 82% 88% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 21%  
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 99.0%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations