Opinion Poll by Център за анализи и маркетинг, 17–24 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0.0% | 35.4% | 33.4–37.4% | 32.9–38.0% | 32.4–38.5% | 31.5–39.4% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.5% | 16.6–23.3% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0.0% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.0–13.0% | 8.5–13.7% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.2% | 6.9–10.5% | 6.4–11.1% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–10.9% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.5–5.7% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.6% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.5–3.5% | 1.3–3.9% |
| Величие (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Величие (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Прогресивна България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 18% | 100% | |
| 7 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.1% | 99.6% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Център за анализи и маркетинг
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–24 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 950
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.39%