Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 23 February–2 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (*) 0.0% 32.6% 30.7–34.6% 30.2–35.1% 29.8–35.6% 28.9–36.5%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Величие (*) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Прогресивна България (*) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Възраждане (ESN) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Да, България! (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Прогресивна България (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 69% 97% Median
7 28% 29%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0% Majority

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 81% 82% Median
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 77% 95% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 69% 84% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0% 0%  

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 69% 84% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations