Opinion Poll by Sova Harris for Trud, 7–12 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0.0% | 30.9% | 29.1–32.8% | 28.5–33.4% | 28.1–33.8% | 27.3–34.8% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.3% | 17.8–21.0% | 17.3–21.5% | 17.0–21.9% | 16.3–22.7% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Сияние (*) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Величие (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Сияние (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Величие (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Прогресивна България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 29% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 62% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 93% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 87% | |
| 2 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Сияние (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Сияние (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sova Harris
- Commissioner(s): Trud
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%