Opinion Poll by Мяра for BNR, 4–13 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0.0% | 34.6% | 32.7–36.6% | 32.2–37.2% | 31.7–37.6% | 30.8–38.6% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.5–20.6% | 16.2–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.7% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| Величие (*) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.0–3.3% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.0–3.3% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Величие (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Прогресивна България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 83% | 99.5% | Median |
| 8 | 17% | 17% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 93% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 97% | |
| 2 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Сияние (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Сияние (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 97% | |
| 2 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Сияние (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Мяра
- Commissioner(s): BNR
- Fieldwork period: 4–13 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.24%