Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 13–15 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0.0% | 34.2% | 32.3–36.2% | 31.8–36.7% | 31.3–37.2% | 30.4–38.1% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.4–22.9% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Величие (*) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Синя България (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (*) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| БСП – обединена левица (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Величие (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Морал, Единство, Чест (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Има такъв народ (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Алианс за права и свободи (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Синя България (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Прогресивна България (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 7 | 25% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 90% | 99.3% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 22% | |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
БСП – обединена левица (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Сияние (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Сияние (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Алианс за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Синя България (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Сияние (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 22% | |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Сияние (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Алфа рисърч
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.03%