Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 13–16 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.7–25.7% 20.3–26.2% 19.4–27.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 22.3% 20.5–24.3% 20.0–24.9% 19.6–25.4% 18.7–26.3%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 16.7% 15.1–18.5% 14.7–19.0% 14.3–19.5% 13.6–20.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.1% 13.6–16.8% 13.2–17.3% 12.8–17.8% 12.1–18.6%
Partit Popular 8.5% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.5% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.3% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.2–7.4% 3.8–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 35 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–42
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 31 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–36
Junts per Catalunya 29 24 23–28 22–29 21–29 20–30
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 20 17–23 16–23 16–24 15–24
Partit Popular 11 10 8–12 7–12 7–13 6–13
Catalunya en Comú 11 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 4–9 3–9 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 4% 97%  
32 11% 93%  
33 8% 82%  
34 9% 74%  
35 19% 65% Median
36 18% 46%  
37 10% 27%  
38 11% 17%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.4%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
26 5% 99.0%  
27 9% 94%  
28 8% 86%  
29 10% 78%  
30 17% 67%  
31 24% 51% Median
32 12% 27%  
33 7% 15%  
34 5% 8%  
35 1.3% 3%  
36 0.9% 1.2%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.8%  
20 0.6% 99.5%  
21 3% 99.0%  
22 4% 96%  
23 19% 92%  
24 29% 73% Median
25 11% 44%  
26 11% 34%  
27 9% 23%  
28 6% 13%  
29 6% 8% Last Result
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 8% 98.7% Last Result
17 14% 91%  
18 9% 77%  
19 15% 67%  
20 13% 53% Median
21 11% 40%  
22 17% 29%  
23 9% 12%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 4% 98%  
8 13% 94%  
9 18% 81%  
10 41% 62% Median
11 8% 21% Last Result
12 10% 13%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 7% 98%  
7 10% 91%  
8 39% 81% Median
9 30% 41%  
10 4% 12%  
11 6% 7% Last Result
12 1.2% 1.5%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 4% 95%  
5 15% 91%  
6 6% 77%  
7 15% 71%  
8 43% 56% Median
9 12% 13%  
10 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 68 61% 64–72 63–73 63–74 61–76
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 67 45% 63–71 62–72 62–73 60–74
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú 63 68 55% 64–72 63–73 62–73 61–75
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 60 0.4% 56–63 55–65 55–66 53–67
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 60 0.2% 56–63 55–64 54–65 52–67

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 1.2% 99.4%  
63 4% 98%  
64 6% 95%  
65 7% 89%  
66 9% 81%  
67 12% 73% Median
68 13% 61% Majority
69 15% 49%  
70 13% 34%  
71 9% 21%  
72 5% 12%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
60 0.7% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 98.9%  
62 3% 98%  
63 7% 95%  
64 10% 88%  
65 11% 78%  
66 10% 68%  
67 13% 57% Median
68 12% 45% Majority
69 13% 32%  
70 9% 20%  
71 5% 10%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.5% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.6%  
62 1.5% 98.9%  
63 3% 97% Last Result
64 5% 95%  
65 9% 90%  
66 13% 80%  
67 12% 68%  
68 13% 55% Majority
69 10% 43% Median
70 11% 32%  
71 10% 22%  
72 7% 12%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 1.5% 99.3%  
55 4% 98%  
56 6% 94%  
57 7% 87%  
58 10% 80%  
59 14% 70% Median
60 14% 57%  
61 15% 43%  
62 11% 28%  
63 7% 17%  
64 4% 10%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.4% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
53 1.1% 99.5%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 7% 93%  
57 10% 87%  
58 14% 77%  
59 11% 63%  
60 11% 51%  
61 11% 40% Median
62 10% 29%  
63 10% 19%  
64 5% 9%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.2% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations