Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 15–18 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 23.9% 22.0–25.9% 21.5–26.5% 21.0–27.0% 20.2–27.9%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 18.6% 16.9–20.5% 16.5–21.0% 16.1–21.5% 15.3–22.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 18.1% 16.5–20.0% 16.0–20.5% 15.6–21.0% 14.8–21.9%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 16.5% 14.9–18.3% 14.5–18.8% 14.1–19.2% 13.4–20.1%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 8.6% 7.5–10.0% 7.1–10.4% 6.9–10.8% 6.4–11.5%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.8% 4.8–8.2% 4.3–8.8%
Partit Popular 8.5% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.3–7.6% 3.9–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 37 33–39 32–40 32–41 31–43
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 25 23–28 22–28 21–29 20–31
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 24 22–26 21–27 21–29 19–30
Junts per Catalunya 29 25 22–27 21–28 21–29 20–31
Catalunya en Comú 11 9 8–12 8–12 8–13 6–14
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 7–9 5–10 5–10 3–11
Partit Popular 11 6 5–9 5–9 4–10 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.4% 99.6%  
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 7% 90%  
35 11% 82%  
36 12% 71%  
37 23% 59% Median
38 21% 36%  
39 7% 15%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.9%  
21 2% 98.6%  
22 5% 96%  
23 6% 92%  
24 17% 86%  
25 30% 69% Last Result, Median
26 20% 39%  
27 7% 19%  
28 8% 12%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.6% 99.8%  
20 1.2% 99.2%  
21 3% 98%  
22 7% 95%  
23 23% 88%  
24 30% 66% Median
25 21% 36%  
26 6% 15%  
27 5% 9%  
28 2% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.8%  
20 0.4% 99.6%  
21 5% 99.1%  
22 7% 95%  
23 18% 87%  
24 19% 69%  
25 17% 50% Median
26 16% 33%  
27 8% 17%  
28 5% 10%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.9%  
7 2% 99.3%  
8 17% 98%  
9 31% 81% Median
10 10% 50%  
11 26% 40% Last Result
12 10% 13%  
13 1.4% 3%  
14 1.3% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.4%  
5 5% 98.9%  
6 4% 94%  
7 7% 90%  
8 47% 83% Median
9 30% 36%  
10 6% 6% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 1.2% 98%  
5 25% 97%  
6 37% 72% Median
7 11% 35%  
8 12% 24%  
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 71 92% 68–74 67–75 66–76 64–78
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 69 78% 66–73 65–74 64–74 63–76
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 66 22% 62–69 61–70 61–71 59–72
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 61 1.0% 58–65 57–66 56–66 55–68
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–63

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 1.0% 99.3%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 7% 92% Majority
69 10% 85%  
70 12% 75%  
71 16% 62% Median
72 17% 46%  
73 13% 29%  
74 8% 16%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 6% 93%  
67 9% 87%  
68 14% 78% Majority
69 16% 64%  
70 15% 48% Median
71 13% 33%  
72 10% 20%  
73 6% 11%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.0%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 1.4% 99.0%  
61 3% 98%  
62 6% 95%  
63 10% 89% Last Result
64 13% 80% Median
65 15% 67%  
66 16% 52%  
67 14% 36%  
68 9% 22% Majority
69 6% 13%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 6% 93%  
59 10% 87%  
60 15% 77%  
61 17% 62%  
62 15% 46% Median
63 12% 31%  
64 9% 19%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.0% Majority
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.4%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96% Last Result
53 8% 92%  
54 15% 83%  
55 17% 68% Median
56 15% 51%  
57 12% 36%  
58 10% 24%  
59 7% 14%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations