Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for El País, 20–22 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 26.5% | 25.1–28.1% | 24.7–28.5% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.6–29.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 25.3% | 23.8–26.8% | 23.4–27.2% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.4–28.3% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.9% | 13.8–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.7–17.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 13.6% | 12.5–14.8% | 12.2–15.2% | 11.9–15.5% | 11.4–16.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.1–8.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.1–6.7% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.4–7.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 40 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 34 | 32–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 19 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 17% | 95% | |
| 39 | 13% | 77% | |
| 40 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 41 | 11% | 45% | |
| 42 | 9% | 34% | |
| 43 | 17% | 25% | |
| 44 | 7% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 11% | 96% | |
| 33 | 12% | 85% | |
| 34 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 42% | |
| 36 | 12% | 25% | |
| 37 | 7% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 17 | 8% | 94% | |
| 18 | 22% | 87% | |
| 19 | 25% | 65% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 39% | |
| 21 | 9% | 25% | |
| 22 | 13% | 17% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 26% | 93% | |
| 19 | 9% | 67% | |
| 20 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 21 | 37% | 50% | |
| 22 | 6% | 13% | |
| 23 | 6% | 7% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 29% | 89% | |
| 7 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 37% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 7% | 91% | |
| 7 | 10% | 84% | |
| 8 | 61% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 14% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 19% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 37% | |
| 8 | 12% | 18% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 68 | 60% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–72 | 62–74 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 67 | 40% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 63–72 | 61–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 67 | 47% | 64–70 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 61–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 67 | 36% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–71 | 61–73 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 60 | 0.1% | 57–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 61 | 0% | 57–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 7% | 93% | |
| 66 | 11% | 86% | |
| 67 | 16% | 76% | |
| 68 | 16% | 60% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 21% | 44% | |
| 70 | 11% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 64 | 6% | 95% | |
| 65 | 11% | 88% | |
| 66 | 21% | 77% | Median |
| 67 | 16% | 56% | |
| 68 | 16% | 40% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 24% | |
| 70 | 7% | 14% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 6% | 95% | |
| 65 | 11% | 89% | |
| 66 | 13% | 78% | |
| 67 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 68 | 17% | 47% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 30% | |
| 70 | 8% | 15% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 10% | 92% | |
| 65 | 13% | 82% | |
| 66 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 67 | 15% | 51% | |
| 68 | 12% | 36% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 24% | |
| 70 | 7% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 95% | |
| 58 | 13% | 88% | |
| 59 | 16% | 75% | Median |
| 60 | 18% | 60% | |
| 61 | 14% | 42% | |
| 62 | 14% | 28% | |
| 63 | 7% | 14% | |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 95% | |
| 58 | 8% | 90% | |
| 59 | 15% | 81% | |
| 60 | 15% | 67% | Median |
| 61 | 25% | 51% | |
| 62 | 11% | 27% | |
| 63 | 8% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metroscopia
- Commissioner(s): El País
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1440
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.69%