Opinion Poll by Advice Strategic Consultants for El Confidencial, 13–23 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 26.7% 25.4–28.1% 25.1–28.4% 24.8–28.8% 24.2–29.4%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 18.3% 17.2–19.5% 16.9–19.8% 16.6–20.1% 16.1–20.7%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.0–13.5% 10.8–13.7% 10.3–14.2%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 9.2% 8.4–10.1% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.6% 7.6–11.0%
Partit Popular 8.5% 7.9% 7.1–8.7% 6.9–9.0% 6.7–9.2% 6.4–9.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 6.1% 5.4–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 43 41–44 40–45 39–46 38–47
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 26 24–27 24–28 24–28 22–30
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 16–23
Junts per Catalunya 29 18 17–20 17–21 17–21 15–22
Catalunya en Comú 11 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 9–14
Partit Popular 11 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 5–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.9%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 5% 97%  
41 12% 92%  
42 22% 80%  
43 22% 57% Median
44 25% 35%  
45 6% 9%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 1.1% 99.4%  
24 10% 98%  
25 38% 88% Last Result
26 38% 51% Median
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 8% 99.7% Last Result
17 24% 92%  
18 14% 68%  
19 16% 54% Median
20 25% 39%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.8%  
16 1.4% 99.1%  
17 25% 98%  
18 38% 73% Median
19 17% 34%  
20 9% 17%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 13% 99.6%  
10 13% 87%  
11 38% 74% Last Result, Median
12 31% 36%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 9% 97%  
10 56% 88% Median
11 11% 32% Last Result
12 19% 21%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.5% 99.9%  
6 1.0% 99.4%  
7 5% 98%  
8 61% 94% Median
9 31% 32%  
10 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 72 99.2% 70–75 69–75 69–76 67–76
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 69 83% 67–72 66–72 66–73 64–74
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 66 17% 63–68 63–69 62–69 61–71
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 61 0% 59–63 58–64 57–64 56–66
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 55 0% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–60

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.2% Majority
69 4% 98%  
70 13% 93%  
71 22% 81%  
72 19% 59% Median
73 16% 40%  
74 13% 23%  
75 8% 10%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.6% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 4% 98%  
67 11% 93%  
68 17% 83% Majority
69 20% 66% Median
70 20% 46%  
71 15% 27%  
72 8% 12%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.8% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.1%  
63 8% 97% Last Result
64 15% 88%  
65 20% 73%  
66 20% 54% Median
67 17% 34%  
68 11% 17% Majority
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 5% 97%  
59 13% 92%  
60 18% 79%  
61 21% 61% Median
62 19% 40%  
63 13% 22%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 3% 99.5%  
52 9% 96% Last Result
53 14% 87%  
54 18% 73%  
55 20% 55% Median
56 21% 35%  
57 10% 15%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations