Opinion Poll by IMOP Insights for CIS, 23–27 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 22.5% | 21.5–23.5% | 21.3–23.8% | 21.0–24.0% | 20.6–24.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 20.8% | 19.9–21.8% | 19.6–22.1% | 19.4–22.3% | 18.9–22.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 16.9% | 16.0–17.8% | 15.8–18.1% | 15.6–18.3% | 15.2–18.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.0% | 15.2–16.9% | 14.9–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.3–17.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.3–10.0% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.1–7.3% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.3–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 31 | 30–33 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–34 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 32 | 30–33 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 25 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 9 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 22% | 93% | |
| 31 | 41% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 30% | |
| 33 | 12% | 14% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 9% | 98% | |
| 31 | 31% | 89% | |
| 32 | 36% | 58% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 22% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 5% | 100% | |
| 24 | 21% | 95% | |
| 25 | 30% | 74% | Median |
| 26 | 31% | 44% | |
| 27 | 8% | 14% | |
| 28 | 3% | 6% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 5% | 97% | |
| 21 | 12% | 91% | |
| 22 | 56% | 79% | Median |
| 23 | 22% | 23% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 51% | 95% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 44% | |
| 11 | 28% | 29% | Last Result |
| 12 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 38% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 59% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 11% | 100% | |
| 6 | 36% | 89% | |
| 7 | 43% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 11% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 69 | 86% | 67–71 | 66–72 | 66–72 | 65–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 67 | 28% | 65–69 | 65–69 | 65–70 | 64–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 66 | 14% | 64–68 | 63–69 | 63–69 | 62–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 60 | 0% | 58–61 | 57–61 | 56–62 | 55–63 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 57 | 0% | 55–59 | 55–60 | 55–60 | 54–61 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 9% | 95% | |
| 68 | 15% | 86% | Majority |
| 69 | 26% | 71% | Median |
| 70 | 23% | 45% | |
| 71 | 16% | 22% | |
| 72 | 5% | 6% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 12% | 98% | |
| 66 | 31% | 86% | Median |
| 67 | 27% | 54% | |
| 68 | 15% | 28% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 63 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 16% | 94% | |
| 65 | 23% | 78% | |
| 66 | 26% | 55% | Median |
| 67 | 15% | 29% | |
| 68 | 9% | 14% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 6% | 97% | |
| 58 | 13% | 91% | |
| 59 | 21% | 78% | |
| 60 | 33% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 20% | 25% | |
| 62 | 4% | 5% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 12% | 98% | |
| 56 | 21% | 85% | |
| 57 | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 58 | 18% | 36% | |
| 59 | 11% | 19% | |
| 60 | 5% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IMOP Insights
- Commissioner(s): CIS
- Fieldwork period: 23–27 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.38%