Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 27–30 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.8–25.7% 20.3–26.2% 19.5–27.2%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 20.5% 18.7–22.4% 18.3–23.0% 17.8–23.4% 17.0–24.4%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.2% 13.7–17.0% 13.3–17.5% 12.9–17.9% 12.2–18.8%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.5–8.9%
Partit Popular 8.5% 6.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.8% 4.8–8.2% 4.3–8.8%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.1–8.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 36 32–39 32–39 31–40 30–42
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 28 26–31 25–32 25–32 23–34
Junts per Catalunya 29 29 26–32 25–32 24–34 23–35
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 21 17–23 17–24 16–24 16–25
Catalunya en Comú 11 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–11
Partit Popular 11 7 6–10 5–10 5–10 4–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 5–9 4–10 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.6%  
31 2% 98%  
32 9% 96%  
33 8% 87%  
34 12% 79%  
35 12% 67%  
36 18% 55% Median
37 11% 37%  
38 16% 26%  
39 6% 10%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 1.0% 99.2%  
25 7% 98% Last Result
26 19% 91%  
27 19% 72%  
28 11% 53% Median
29 14% 42%  
30 11% 29%  
31 12% 18%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 3% 96%  
26 8% 93%  
27 8% 85%  
28 19% 77%  
29 16% 58% Last Result, Median
30 21% 42%  
31 7% 22%  
32 9% 14%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 1.0%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 4% 99.6% Last Result
17 11% 96%  
18 6% 85%  
19 16% 79%  
20 13% 63%  
21 18% 51% Median
22 12% 33%  
23 15% 21%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.9% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 19% 98%  
6 27% 79%  
7 16% 52% Median
8 28% 36%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.4% 1.0%  
11 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.7%  
5 8% 99.3%  
6 30% 91%  
7 11% 61% Median
8 26% 50%  
9 11% 24%  
10 11% 13%  
11 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.1% 100%  
4 2% 98.9%  
5 8% 97%  
6 6% 89%  
7 6% 83%  
8 47% 78% Median
9 27% 31%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 72 96% 69–76 68–77 67–78 65–80
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 71 91% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–79
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 65 16% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 63 4% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 49–63

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96% Majority
69 7% 91%  
70 11% 85%  
71 12% 74%  
72 13% 62%  
73 12% 48% Median
74 12% 37%  
75 10% 24%  
76 7% 15%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.9% 1.5%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 1.2% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 5% 96%  
68 7% 91% Majority
69 11% 84%  
70 13% 73%  
71 13% 60%  
72 13% 47% Median
73 10% 34%  
74 10% 24%  
75 7% 14%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 6% 93%  
62 11% 87%  
63 11% 76%  
64 13% 64%  
65 12% 51% Median
66 12% 38%  
67 10% 26%  
68 8% 16% Majority
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.5%  
58 4% 97%  
59 7% 92%  
60 10% 85%  
61 12% 76%  
62 12% 63%  
63 13% 52% Last Result, Median
64 12% 38%  
65 11% 26%  
66 7% 15%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 4% Majority
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.6%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 4% 97%  
52 6% 93% Last Result
53 9% 88%  
54 10% 78%  
55 14% 68%  
56 13% 55% Median
57 14% 42%  
58 10% 28%  
59 8% 18%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 0.9% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations