Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 30 November–7 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 22.9% | 21.0–24.9% | 20.5–25.4% | 20.1–25.9% | 19.3–26.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 22.2% | 20.4–24.2% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.5–25.3% | 18.7–26.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 16.2% | 14.7–18.0% | 14.2–18.5% | 13.9–19.0% | 13.1–19.9% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.1% | 14.6–17.9% | 14.1–18.4% | 13.7–18.8% | 13.0–19.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.5% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.9–10.9% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.6–7.9% | 5.3–8.3% | 5.1–8.6% | 4.6–9.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 35 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 18–30 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 22 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 7% | 96% | |
| 32 | 15% | 89% | |
| 33 | 9% | 74% | |
| 34 | 12% | 64% | |
| 35 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 36% | |
| 37 | 13% | 24% | |
| 38 | 8% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 26 | 6% | 98% | |
| 27 | 7% | 92% | |
| 28 | 12% | 85% | |
| 29 | 15% | 74% | |
| 30 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 22% | 42% | |
| 32 | 9% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 8% | 97% | |
| 22 | 7% | 89% | |
| 23 | 26% | 82% | |
| 24 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 32% | |
| 26 | 10% | 21% | |
| 27 | 5% | 11% | |
| 28 | 3% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 98% | |
| 18 | 6% | 94% | |
| 19 | 11% | 88% | |
| 20 | 11% | 77% | |
| 21 | 11% | 66% | |
| 22 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 23 | 21% | 31% | |
| 24 | 8% | 10% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 31% | 91% | |
| 9 | 35% | 59% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 25% | |
| 11 | 14% | 18% | Last Result |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 15% | 96% | |
| 7 | 17% | 81% | |
| 8 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 9 | 24% | 44% | |
| 10 | 18% | 20% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 2% | 97% | |
| 7 | 4% | 95% | |
| 8 | 42% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 38% | 49% | |
| 10 | 10% | 11% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 68 | 57% | 65–72 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 61–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 67 | 49% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 67 | 43% | 63–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 60–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 65 | 16% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 57–72 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 59 | 0.1% | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–64 | 52–66 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 59 | 0.1% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 | 52–66 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 64 | 4% | 96% | |
| 65 | 9% | 92% | |
| 66 | 13% | 83% | |
| 67 | 13% | 70% | |
| 68 | 13% | 57% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 33% | |
| 71 | 10% | 21% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 8% | 92% | |
| 65 | 10% | 84% | |
| 66 | 12% | 74% | |
| 67 | 13% | 62% | |
| 68 | 14% | 49% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 36% | |
| 70 | 10% | 22% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 6% | 95% | |
| 64 | 10% | 89% | |
| 65 | 12% | 79% | |
| 66 | 12% | 67% | |
| 67 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 43% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 30% | |
| 70 | 9% | 17% | |
| 71 | 4% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 94% | |
| 62 | 10% | 89% | |
| 63 | 15% | 79% | |
| 64 | 13% | 64% | |
| 65 | 13% | 51% | |
| 66 | 11% | 38% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 16% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 53 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 8% | 92% | |
| 57 | 12% | 83% | |
| 58 | 13% | 72% | |
| 59 | 13% | 58% | |
| 60 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 33% | |
| 62 | 9% | 21% | |
| 63 | 7% | 12% | |
| 64 | 3% | 5% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 8% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 85% | |
| 57 | 12% | 75% | |
| 58 | 12% | 63% | |
| 59 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 37% | |
| 61 | 12% | 23% | |
| 62 | 6% | 12% | |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 30 November–7 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.40%