Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 4–7 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 23.1% | 21.4–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.6–25.8% | 19.8–26.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 21.5% | 19.9–23.2% | 19.4–23.7% | 19.1–24.2% | 18.3–25.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.5% | 15.1–18.1% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.7–19.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 27 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 23–32 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 22 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 4% | 96% | |
| 29 | 7% | 92% | |
| 30 | 15% | 84% | |
| 31 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 41% | |
| 33 | 12% | 25% | |
| 34 | 8% | 13% | |
| 35 | 2% | 5% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98% | |
| 30 | 13% | 92% | |
| 31 | 17% | 80% | |
| 32 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 39% | |
| 34 | 8% | 29% | |
| 35 | 12% | 21% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 10% | 97% | |
| 25 | 11% | 87% | |
| 26 | 15% | 76% | |
| 27 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 45% | |
| 29 | 21% | 33% | Last Result |
| 30 | 8% | 12% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 7% | 95% | |
| 20 | 8% | 88% | |
| 21 | 8% | 81% | |
| 22 | 30% | 73% | Median |
| 23 | 28% | 43% | |
| 24 | 12% | 14% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 97% | |
| 7 | 15% | 89% | |
| 8 | 45% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 28% | |
| 10 | 2% | 5% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 12% | 93% | |
| 8 | 22% | 81% | |
| 9 | 27% | 59% | Median |
| 10 | 27% | 31% | |
| 11 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 8% | 82% | |
| 5 | 31% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 44% | |
| 7 | 13% | 37% | |
| 8 | 22% | 23% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 70 | 82% | 66–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 63–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 68 | 51% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 63–73 | 61–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 65 | 18% | 62–69 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 62 | 2% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–67 | 56–69 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 62 | 1.1% | 58–65 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 55–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 60 | 0.1% | 56–63 | 55–64 | 55–65 | 53–66 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 64 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 5% | 95% | |
| 67 | 8% | 90% | |
| 68 | 10% | 82% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 71% | |
| 70 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 43% | |
| 72 | 12% | 26% | |
| 73 | 7% | 14% | |
| 74 | 4% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 8% | 94% | |
| 65 | 10% | 86% | |
| 66 | 11% | 76% | |
| 67 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 68 | 14% | 51% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 36% | |
| 70 | 10% | 21% | |
| 71 | 5% | 12% | |
| 72 | 4% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 60 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 7% | 93% | |
| 63 | 12% | 86% | |
| 64 | 17% | 74% | Median |
| 65 | 16% | 57% | |
| 66 | 13% | 42% | |
| 67 | 10% | 29% | |
| 68 | 8% | 18% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 5% | |
| 71 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 5% | 92% | |
| 60 | 10% | 87% | |
| 61 | 14% | 77% | |
| 62 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 63 | 17% | 45% | |
| 64 | 11% | 29% | |
| 65 | 7% | 18% | |
| 66 | 6% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 8% | 90% | |
| 60 | 10% | 82% | |
| 61 | 14% | 72% | |
| 62 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 63 | 17% | 43% | |
| 64 | 12% | 26% | |
| 65 | 7% | 14% | |
| 66 | 4% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 8% | 94% | |
| 57 | 10% | 86% | |
| 58 | 11% | 77% | |
| 59 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 52% | |
| 61 | 15% | 36% | |
| 62 | 9% | 21% | |
| 63 | 5% | 12% | |
| 64 | 3% | 6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.75%