Opinion Poll by Infortécnica for Segre, 7 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 24.4% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.5% | 22.1–26.9% | 21.4–27.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 23.3% | 21.8–24.9% | 21.3–25.3% | 21.0–25.7% | 20.3–26.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 18.9% | 17.5–20.4% | 17.1–20.9% | 16.8–21.2% | 16.2–22.0% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.3% | 15.0–17.7% | 14.6–18.1% | 14.3–18.5% | 13.7–19.2% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 32 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 35 | 32–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 28 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–8 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 96% | |
| 31 | 18% | 93% | |
| 32 | 30% | 74% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 44% | |
| 34 | 17% | 32% | |
| 35 | 9% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 15% | 96% | |
| 33 | 14% | 81% | |
| 34 | 16% | 67% | |
| 35 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 37% | |
| 37 | 9% | 16% | |
| 38 | 5% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 6% | 95% | |
| 26 | 16% | 89% | |
| 27 | 13% | 73% | |
| 28 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 29 | 18% | 39% | Last Result |
| 30 | 18% | 21% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 4% | 97% | |
| 19 | 14% | 93% | |
| 20 | 12% | 79% | |
| 21 | 14% | 67% | |
| 22 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 23 | 24% | 31% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 2% | 95% | |
| 7 | 5% | 93% | |
| 8 | 58% | 88% | Median |
| 9 | 28% | 30% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 98% | |
| 5 | 32% | 96% | |
| 6 | 46% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 18% | |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 98% | |
| 5 | 52% | 65% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 13% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 70 | 92% | 68–73 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 67 | 39% | 64–70 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú | 63 | 65 | 8% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 62 | 1.3% | 60–65 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 60 | 0.1% | 58–64 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 60 | 0% | 57–63 | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–65 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 5% | 97% | |
| 68 | 8% | 92% | Majority |
| 69 | 17% | 83% | |
| 70 | 20% | 67% | |
| 71 | 17% | 47% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 30% | |
| 73 | 8% | 18% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 7% | 96% | |
| 65 | 10% | 89% | |
| 66 | 20% | 79% | |
| 67 | 21% | 59% | |
| 68 | 13% | 39% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 26% | |
| 70 | 10% | 17% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 8% | 91% | |
| 63 | 12% | 82% | Last Result |
| 64 | 17% | 70% | |
| 65 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 66 | 17% | 33% | |
| 67 | 8% | 17% | |
| 68 | 5% | 8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 59 | 5% | 97% | |
| 60 | 9% | 92% | |
| 61 | 18% | 83% | |
| 62 | 21% | 65% | |
| 63 | 15% | 43% | Median |
| 64 | 10% | 28% | |
| 65 | 8% | 18% | |
| 66 | 6% | 10% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 5% | 97% | |
| 58 | 8% | 92% | |
| 59 | 14% | 85% | |
| 60 | 23% | 71% | |
| 61 | 15% | 48% | |
| 62 | 11% | 32% | Median |
| 63 | 11% | 22% | |
| 64 | 6% | 11% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 9% | 93% | |
| 58 | 11% | 83% | |
| 59 | 14% | 73% | |
| 60 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 36% | |
| 62 | 9% | 21% | |
| 63 | 8% | 11% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infortécnica
- Commissioner(s): Segre
- Fieldwork period: 7 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1216
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.40%