Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 27 November–8 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 22.5% | 21.0–24.2% | 20.5–24.7% | 20.2–25.1% | 19.4–25.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 21.5% | 20.0–23.2% | 19.6–23.7% | 19.2–24.1% | 18.5–24.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 19.8% | 18.3–21.4% | 17.9–21.9% | 17.6–22.3% | 16.9–23.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.1–15.8% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.4–16.6% | 11.8–17.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.2–8.8% | 6.0–9.1% | 5.5–9.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.0–7.6% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.2–6.9% | 3.8–7.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 30 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 12% | 95% | |
| 33 | 10% | 82% | |
| 34 | 14% | 73% | |
| 35 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 43% | |
| 37 | 9% | 22% | |
| 38 | 10% | 13% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 26 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 12% | 94% | |
| 28 | 9% | 83% | |
| 29 | 19% | 74% | |
| 30 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 31 | 23% | 40% | |
| 32 | 8% | 16% | |
| 33 | 5% | 8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 2% | 97% | |
| 28 | 5% | 94% | |
| 29 | 19% | 90% | Last Result |
| 30 | 29% | 70% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 41% | |
| 32 | 18% | 29% | |
| 33 | 5% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 11% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 17 | 21% | 88% | |
| 18 | 12% | 67% | |
| 19 | 24% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 30% | |
| 21 | 7% | 22% | |
| 22 | 11% | 15% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 9% | 90% | |
| 8 | 45% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 35% | |
| 10 | 3% | 7% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 98% | |
| 5 | 15% | 95% | |
| 6 | 8% | 80% | |
| 7 | 12% | 72% | |
| 8 | 50% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 97% | |
| 5 | 34% | 94% | |
| 6 | 38% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 23% | |
| 8 | 9% | 11% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 74 | 99.1% | 70–77 | 69–78 | 69–78 | 67–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 72 | 97% | 69–76 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 65 | 20% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 61–70 | 59–72 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 63 | 3% | 59–66 | 59–67 | 58–68 | 56–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 62 | 2% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 57–67 | 56–69 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 54 | 0% | 51–58 | 50–59 | 50–59 | 48–61 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 8% | 94% | |
| 71 | 10% | 86% | |
| 72 | 12% | 76% | |
| 73 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 51% | |
| 75 | 13% | 36% | |
| 76 | 12% | 23% | |
| 77 | 6% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 94% | |
| 70 | 11% | 87% | |
| 71 | 13% | 76% | |
| 72 | 13% | 63% | |
| 73 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 36% | |
| 75 | 10% | 23% | |
| 76 | 8% | 13% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 8% | 93% | |
| 63 | 10% | 85% | |
| 64 | 11% | 75% | |
| 65 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 49% | |
| 67 | 14% | 34% | |
| 68 | 12% | 20% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 8% | 95% | |
| 60 | 10% | 87% | |
| 61 | 12% | 77% | |
| 62 | 14% | 64% | |
| 63 | 13% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 64 | 13% | 37% | |
| 65 | 11% | 24% | |
| 66 | 7% | 13% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 7% | 89% | |
| 60 | 11% | 82% | |
| 61 | 14% | 71% | |
| 62 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 63 | 17% | 41% | |
| 64 | 10% | 24% | |
| 65 | 6% | 14% | |
| 66 | 4% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 9% | 94% | |
| 52 | 10% | 85% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 75% | |
| 54 | 14% | 62% | |
| 55 | 14% | 48% | Median |
| 56 | 12% | 34% | |
| 57 | 10% | 22% | |
| 58 | 6% | 11% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–8 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.05%