Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 1–9 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 21.4% 19.8–23.0% 19.4–23.5% 19.0–23.9% 18.3–24.7%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 21.3% 19.8–22.9% 19.3–23.4% 18.9–23.8% 18.2–24.6%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 21.2% 19.7–22.8% 19.2–23.3% 18.9–23.7% 18.2–24.5%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 14.1% 12.8–15.5% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.3% 11.6–17.0%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 8.2% 7.2–9.3% 6.9–9.7% 6.7–10.0% 6.3–10.5%
Partit Popular 8.5% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.9% 5.1–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 32 30–35 29–36 29–37 28–38
Junts per Catalunya 29 32 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–38
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 29 26–31 26–32 25–32 25–34
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 17 16–21 16–22 15–22 15–23
Catalunya en Comú 11 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 6–12
Partit Popular 11 7 5–9 5–9 5–10 5–10
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 5–9 5–9 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.6%  
29 5% 98.7%  
30 14% 93%  
31 11% 79%  
32 28% 68% Median
33 12% 40%  
34 10% 29%  
35 10% 18%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.9% 1.0%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 1.1% 99.4%  
29 6% 98% Last Result
30 16% 92%  
31 11% 77%  
32 29% 66% Median
33 11% 37%  
34 9% 26%  
35 9% 16%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.7% Last Result
26 14% 97%  
27 16% 83%  
28 14% 68%  
29 14% 54% Median
30 18% 39%  
31 15% 21%  
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 4% 99.7%  
16 21% 96% Last Result
17 26% 75% Median
18 12% 49%  
19 16% 37%  
20 9% 20%  
21 5% 11%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.2% 1.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.1% 99.9%  
7 3% 98.8%  
8 28% 96%  
9 44% 68% Median
10 8% 25%  
11 13% 17% Last Result
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 12% 99.5%  
6 30% 88%  
7 21% 58% Median
8 24% 37%  
9 9% 13%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.2%  
5 8% 98%  
6 4% 90%  
7 12% 86%  
8 55% 74% Median
9 18% 19%  
10 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 74 99.6% 70–77 70–78 69–79 68–80
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 72 97% 69–75 68–76 67–77 66–78
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 65 12% 61–68 61–69 60–69 59–71
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 63 3% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–69
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú 47 59 0.1% 56–63 56–64 55–64 54–66
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 54 0% 50–57 50–58 49–58 48–60

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.6% Majority
69 3% 98.8%  
70 7% 96%  
71 10% 89%  
72 11% 78%  
73 14% 67% Median
74 14% 53%  
75 13% 38%  
76 12% 25%  
77 6% 13%  
78 4% 7%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 3% 97% Majority
69 8% 94%  
70 12% 86%  
71 12% 74%  
72 15% 62% Median
73 15% 47%  
74 12% 32%  
75 10% 20%  
76 6% 10%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.6%  
60 3% 98.6%  
61 7% 96%  
62 12% 89%  
63 12% 77%  
64 14% 66% Median
65 15% 52%  
66 13% 37%  
67 12% 24%  
68 7% 12% Majority
69 3% 5%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.6%  
58 2% 98.6%  
59 6% 96%  
60 10% 90%  
61 12% 80%  
62 15% 68% Median
63 15% 53% Last Result
64 12% 38%  
65 12% 26%  
66 8% 14%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3% Majority
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.5%  
55 3% 98.5%  
56 7% 96%  
57 15% 89%  
58 13% 74% Median
59 13% 61%  
60 13% 47%  
61 11% 34%  
62 10% 23%  
63 7% 12%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 95%  
51 10% 89%  
52 12% 79% Last Result
53 15% 67% Median
54 15% 52%  
55 13% 37%  
56 11% 24%  
57 8% 14%  
58 3% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations