Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 3–11 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 21.9% | 20.4–23.6% | 19.9–24.1% | 19.6–24.5% | 18.8–25.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 21.5% | 20.0–23.2% | 19.6–23.7% | 19.2–24.1% | 18.5–24.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.3% | 18.7–22.7% | 18.3–23.1% | 17.6–23.9% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.6% | 13.3–16.1% | 13.0–16.5% | 12.7–16.9% | 12.1–17.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.5–10.9% | 7.1–11.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 33 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 31 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 26–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 7 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 12% | 94% | |
| 28 | 7% | 81% | |
| 29 | 12% | 74% | |
| 30 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 21% | 41% | |
| 32 | 9% | 20% | |
| 33 | 8% | 11% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 16% | 95% | |
| 31 | 9% | 79% | |
| 32 | 18% | 70% | |
| 33 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 12% | 40% | |
| 35 | 18% | 28% | |
| 36 | 7% | 11% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 29 | 15% | 97% | Last Result |
| 30 | 28% | 82% | |
| 31 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 42% | |
| 33 | 8% | 24% | |
| 34 | 6% | 17% | |
| 35 | 8% | 11% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 11% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 17 | 24% | 88% | |
| 18 | 10% | 64% | |
| 19 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 41% | |
| 21 | 10% | 29% | |
| 22 | 15% | 19% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 30% | 94% | |
| 10 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 49% | Last Result |
| 12 | 14% | 22% | |
| 13 | 5% | 8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 92% | |
| 5 | 18% | 85% | |
| 6 | 8% | 67% | |
| 7 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 35% | 39% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 90% | |
| 5 | 51% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 33% | |
| 7 | 9% | 12% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 75 | 99.8% | 71–78 | 70–79 | 70–80 | 68–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 70 | 87% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 64–77 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 65 | 13% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 64 | 10% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 62 | 3% | 58–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 54 | 0% | 51–57 | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–61 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 5% | 98% | |
| 71 | 9% | 93% | |
| 72 | 10% | 84% | |
| 73 | 11% | 74% | |
| 74 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 75 | 15% | 50% | |
| 76 | 13% | 36% | |
| 77 | 10% | 23% | |
| 78 | 6% | 13% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 6% | 93% | |
| 68 | 9% | 87% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 78% | |
| 70 | 15% | 64% | |
| 71 | 14% | 49% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 35% | |
| 73 | 10% | 24% | |
| 74 | 7% | 15% | |
| 75 | 5% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 5% | 97% | |
| 61 | 7% | 92% | |
| 62 | 10% | 85% | |
| 63 | 11% | 76% | Last Result |
| 64 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 65 | 15% | 51% | |
| 66 | 14% | 36% | |
| 67 | 9% | 22% | |
| 68 | 6% | 13% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 6% | 96% | |
| 61 | 9% | 91% | |
| 62 | 12% | 82% | |
| 63 | 12% | 70% | |
| 64 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 44% | |
| 66 | 10% | 29% | |
| 67 | 9% | 19% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 6% | 96% | |
| 59 | 7% | 89% | |
| 60 | 8% | 82% | |
| 61 | 13% | 74% | |
| 62 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 63 | 16% | 47% | |
| 64 | 12% | 30% | |
| 65 | 8% | 19% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 5% | 96% | |
| 51 | 9% | 91% | |
| 52 | 11% | 82% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 71% | |
| 54 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 45% | |
| 56 | 12% | 31% | |
| 57 | 10% | 19% | |
| 58 | 5% | 10% | |
| 59 | 3% | 5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 3–11 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.62%