Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for El País, 4–13 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 25.2% 24.2–26.2% 24.0–26.5% 23.7–26.7% 23.3–27.2%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 23.1% 22.2–24.1% 21.9–24.3% 21.7–24.6% 21.2–25.0%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 14.3% 13.5–15.1% 13.3–15.3% 13.1–15.5% 12.8–15.9%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 14.3% 13.5–15.1% 13.3–15.3% 13.1–15.5% 12.8–15.9%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 9.3% 8.7–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.4–10.3% 8.1–10.7%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 6.4% 5.9–7.0% 5.7–7.1% 5.6–7.3% 5.4–7.6%
Partit Popular 8.5% 5.4% 4.9–5.9% 4.8–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 34 33–36 33–36 33–37 32–38
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 35 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 16–22
Junts per Catalunya 29 22 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Catalunya en Comú 11 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Partit Popular 11 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 13% 99.0%  
34 47% 86% Median
35 26% 39%  
36 8% 13%  
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.1% 99.9%  
33 5% 98.8%  
34 8% 94%  
35 37% 85% Median
36 20% 49%  
37 24% 29%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.4% 1.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 8% 99.9% Last Result
17 14% 92%  
18 42% 79% Median
19 22% 37%  
20 10% 15%  
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 3% 98%  
20 5% 94%  
21 25% 90%  
22 37% 64% Median
23 26% 27%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 12% 99.9%  
10 8% 88%  
11 65% 80% Last Result, Median
12 12% 16%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.4% 99.9%  
8 69% 98% Median
9 30% 30%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 43% 99.5%  
6 39% 56% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 69 87% 67–71 67–72 67–73 66–73
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 68 70% 66–70 66–71 65–71 64–72
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 66 13% 64–68 63–68 62–68 62–69
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú 47 65 4% 63–67 63–67 62–68 61–69
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 58 0% 57–61 56–61 56–62 55–63
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 57 0% 55–59 55–60 54–60 53–61

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 11% 98%  
68 17% 87% Majority
69 26% 70% Median
70 20% 44%  
71 14% 24%  
72 7% 10%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.9% 99.7%  
65 4% 98.8%  
66 8% 95%  
67 18% 87%  
68 26% 70% Median, Majority
69 22% 44%  
70 15% 21%  
71 6% 6%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.5%  
63 7% 97%  
64 14% 90%  
65 20% 76% Median
66 26% 56%  
67 17% 30%  
68 11% 13% Majority
69 2% 2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 100%  
61 1.4% 99.6%  
62 3% 98%  
63 8% 95%  
64 29% 87% Median
65 32% 58%  
66 16% 26%  
67 7% 10%  
68 3% 4% Majority
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 2% 99.9%  
56 7% 98%  
57 17% 91%  
58 26% 73% Median
59 22% 47%  
60 14% 25%  
61 7% 10%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 4% 99.3%  
55 8% 96%  
56 17% 88%  
57 23% 71% Median
58 23% 48%  
59 17% 25%  
60 8% 8%  
61 0.7% 0.7%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations