Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 4–13 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Partit Popular 8.5% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 35 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 30 27–32 26–33 26–34 25–35
Junts per Catalunya 29 24 22–27 21–28 21–29 19–29
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 22 19–23 18–24 17–24 16–25
Catalunya en Comú 11 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–12
Partit Popular 11 9 7–10 7–11 6–12 6–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 5–9 4–9 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.2%  
31 6% 97%  
32 17% 91%  
33 10% 74%  
34 13% 64%  
35 18% 51% Median
36 15% 33%  
37 9% 18%  
38 7% 9%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
26 5% 99.1%  
27 8% 94%  
28 11% 86%  
29 14% 75%  
30 19% 61% Median
31 25% 43%  
32 10% 18%  
33 5% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.5% 0.8%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.7%  
20 0.6% 99.5%  
21 6% 98.8%  
22 6% 93%  
23 23% 87%  
24 31% 63% Median
25 12% 32%  
26 10% 21%  
27 5% 11%  
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 3% Last Result
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.9% 100% Last Result
17 3% 99.1%  
18 4% 96%  
19 10% 92%  
20 11% 82%  
21 12% 71%  
22 25% 58% Median
23 23% 33%  
24 8% 10%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 5% 99.1%  
7 9% 94%  
8 41% 85% Median
9 33% 44%  
10 4% 11%  
11 6% 7% Last Result
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 4% 99.7%  
7 6% 96%  
8 16% 90%  
9 26% 73% Median
10 37% 47%  
11 5% 10% Last Result
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 1.5% 98.6%  
5 10% 97%  
6 5% 87%  
7 12% 82%  
8 52% 70% Median
9 16% 18%  
10 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 69 70% 66–72 65–73 64–74 62–75
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 67 42% 64–70 63–71 62–72 61–74
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 66 30% 63–69 62–70 61–71 60–73
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú 47 64 11% 61–68 60–69 59–69 57–71
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 61 0.2% 57–64 56–64 56–65 54–67
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 59 0% 55–62 55–63 54–64 53–65

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
64 2% 98%  
65 6% 96%  
66 9% 91%  
67 12% 82%  
68 14% 70% Majority
69 12% 56% Median
70 13% 44%  
71 14% 30%  
72 10% 16%  
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 7% 97%  
64 11% 90%  
65 12% 80%  
66 12% 68%  
67 14% 57% Median
68 14% 42% Majority
69 12% 28%  
70 9% 17%  
71 4% 8%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 2% 99.1%  
62 4% 97%  
63 10% 93%  
64 14% 84%  
65 13% 70%  
66 12% 56%  
67 14% 44% Median
68 12% 30% Majority
69 9% 18%  
70 6% 9%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.8% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 3% 97%  
61 6% 94%  
62 13% 88%  
63 17% 75%  
64 15% 58%  
65 14% 44% Median
66 11% 30%  
67 9% 19%  
68 6% 11% Majority
69 3% 5%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100% Last Result
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.6%  
55 1.4% 99.0%  
56 3% 98%  
57 7% 94%  
58 10% 87%  
59 13% 77%  
60 13% 64%  
61 13% 51% Median
62 14% 39%  
63 13% 25%  
64 8% 12%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.6%  
54 3% 98.8%  
55 9% 96%  
56 11% 87%  
57 12% 76%  
58 12% 64%  
59 17% 52% Median
60 13% 36%  
61 11% 23%  
62 7% 12%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.4% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations