Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 12–14 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.4–22.9% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.3% | 14.9–17.9% | 14.5–18.3% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.5–19.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 31 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 29 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 22 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 11% | 93% | |
| 30 | 11% | 82% | |
| 31 | 26% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 45% | |
| 33 | 12% | 27% | |
| 34 | 11% | 16% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 3% | 96% | |
| 28 | 5% | 93% | |
| 29 | 16% | 88% | |
| 30 | 17% | 72% | |
| 31 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 31% | |
| 33 | 5% | 12% | |
| 34 | 3% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 10% | 96% | |
| 27 | 8% | 87% | |
| 28 | 10% | 79% | |
| 29 | 22% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 18% | 47% | |
| 31 | 15% | 28% | |
| 32 | 10% | 13% | |
| 33 | 2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 4% | 97% | |
| 19 | 11% | 93% | |
| 20 | 10% | 82% | |
| 21 | 8% | 72% | |
| 22 | 26% | 64% | Median |
| 23 | 26% | 38% | |
| 24 | 10% | 12% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 98% | |
| 7 | 10% | 89% | |
| 8 | 45% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 26% | 34% | |
| 10 | 3% | 8% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 28% | 88% | |
| 7 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 40% | |
| 9 | 13% | 19% | |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 96% | |
| 5 | 20% | 94% | |
| 6 | 9% | 75% | |
| 7 | 12% | 66% | |
| 8 | 46% | 54% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 68 | 60% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 68 | 60% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 61–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 67 | 40% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 60–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 60 | 0.2% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 60 | 0.2% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 60 | 0.1% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 53–67 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 8% | 94% | |
| 66 | 13% | 86% | |
| 67 | 13% | 73% | |
| 68 | 13% | 60% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 47% | |
| 70 | 14% | 32% | |
| 71 | 9% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 8% | 91% | |
| 66 | 11% | 83% | |
| 67 | 12% | 72% | |
| 68 | 16% | 60% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 18% | 43% | |
| 70 | 13% | 26% | |
| 71 | 7% | 13% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 96% | |
| 64 | 9% | 90% | |
| 65 | 14% | 82% | |
| 66 | 15% | 68% | |
| 67 | 13% | 53% | |
| 68 | 13% | 40% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 27% | |
| 70 | 8% | 14% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 10% | 84% | |
| 59 | 11% | 74% | |
| 60 | 13% | 63% | |
| 61 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 36% | |
| 63 | 12% | 21% | |
| 64 | 5% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 9% | 93% | |
| 58 | 12% | 85% | |
| 59 | 13% | 73% | |
| 60 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 46% | |
| 62 | 13% | 30% | |
| 63 | 9% | 17% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 9% | 91% | |
| 58 | 11% | 82% | |
| 59 | 12% | 71% | |
| 60 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 41% | |
| 62 | 12% | 23% | |
| 63 | 5% | 11% | |
| 64 | 3% | 6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.81%