Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 12–14 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 22.2% | 20.4–24.2% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.5–25.3% | 18.7–26.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 21.2% | 19.5–23.2% | 19.0–23.7% | 18.5–24.2% | 17.7–25.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 17.9% | 16.2–19.7% | 15.8–20.2% | 15.4–20.7% | 14.6–21.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 16.9% | 15.3–18.7% | 14.8–19.2% | 14.4–19.6% | 13.7–20.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.7–10.3% | 7.4–10.7% | 7.1–11.1% | 6.6–11.8% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.1–7.3% | 3.7–7.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 34 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–38 | 28–40 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 29 | 26–31 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 27 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 23 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 17–27 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–14 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 91% | |
| 32 | 16% | 82% | |
| 33 | 12% | 65% | |
| 34 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 43% | |
| 36 | 11% | 25% | |
| 37 | 8% | 15% | |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 26 | 14% | 94% | |
| 27 | 12% | 79% | |
| 28 | 16% | 68% | |
| 29 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 38% | |
| 31 | 12% | 22% | |
| 32 | 5% | 10% | |
| 33 | 4% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 14% | 93% | |
| 25 | 11% | 79% | |
| 26 | 14% | 69% | |
| 27 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 41% | |
| 29 | 19% | 30% | Last Result |
| 30 | 7% | 11% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 5% | 97% | |
| 20 | 5% | 92% | |
| 21 | 6% | 87% | |
| 22 | 24% | 81% | |
| 23 | 30% | 57% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 27% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 13% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 31% | 86% | |
| 10 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 26% | 45% | Last Result |
| 12 | 12% | 18% | |
| 13 | 3% | 6% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 30% | 95% | |
| 6 | 29% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 36% | |
| 8 | 11% | 19% | |
| 9 | 5% | 7% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 93% | |
| 5 | 17% | 90% | |
| 6 | 7% | 73% | |
| 7 | 15% | 66% | |
| 8 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 71 | 88% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–76 | 64–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 68 | 51% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 67 | 49% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 66 | 37% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 59–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 61 | 0.8% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 54–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 57 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 50–64 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 9% | 88% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 79% | |
| 70 | 15% | 67% | |
| 71 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 38% | |
| 73 | 10% | 27% | |
| 74 | 6% | 17% | |
| 75 | 4% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 96% | |
| 64 | 7% | 92% | |
| 65 | 9% | 84% | |
| 66 | 11% | 76% | |
| 67 | 13% | 64% | |
| 68 | 14% | 51% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 37% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 64 | 6% | 93% | |
| 65 | 11% | 88% | |
| 66 | 14% | 77% | |
| 67 | 14% | 63% | |
| 68 | 13% | 49% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 36% | |
| 70 | 9% | 24% | |
| 71 | 7% | 16% | |
| 72 | 5% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 8% | 92% | |
| 64 | 11% | 84% | |
| 65 | 12% | 73% | |
| 66 | 12% | 61% | |
| 67 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 37% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 26% | |
| 70 | 8% | 15% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 8% | 86% | |
| 59 | 11% | 78% | |
| 60 | 15% | 67% | |
| 61 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 36% | |
| 63 | 9% | 24% | |
| 64 | 6% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 8% | 93% | |
| 55 | 10% | 85% | |
| 56 | 12% | 75% | |
| 57 | 14% | 63% | |
| 58 | 14% | 49% | Median |
| 59 | 12% | 35% | |
| 60 | 10% | 23% | |
| 61 | 7% | 13% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.58%