Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 1–14 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 22.9% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.2–24.8% | 20.9–25.1% | 20.2–25.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 21.1% | 19.8–22.5% | 19.4–22.9% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.5–24.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 20.3% | 19.0–21.7% | 18.7–22.1% | 18.4–22.5% | 17.8–23.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 12.8–15.2% | 12.5–15.5% | 12.3–15.8% | 11.8–16.4% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.2–11.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.2–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 27–35 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 30 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 26–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 17 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 7–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–9 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 3% | 97% | |
| 29 | 6% | 94% | |
| 30 | 18% | 88% | |
| 31 | 30% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 40% | |
| 33 | 17% | 25% | |
| 34 | 7% | 8% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 20% | 92% | |
| 31 | 17% | 73% | |
| 32 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 18% | |
| 35 | 7% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 22% | 96% | Last Result |
| 30 | 28% | 74% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 46% | |
| 32 | 17% | 29% | |
| 33 | 7% | 12% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 28% | 95% | Last Result |
| 17 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 39% | |
| 19 | 13% | 24% | |
| 20 | 5% | 11% | |
| 21 | 3% | 5% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 35% | 94% | |
| 10 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 47% | Last Result |
| 12 | 10% | 13% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 3% | 94% | |
| 7 | 15% | 91% | |
| 8 | 62% | 76% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 14% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 34% | 98% | |
| 6 | 34% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 22% | 29% | |
| 8 | 6% | 8% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 72 | 99.6% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 70 | 91% | 68–73 | 67–74 | 66–74 | 65–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 65 | 9% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 61–69 | 59–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 62 | 0.9% | 60–65 | 59–66 | 59–67 | 57–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 59 | 0% | 57–62 | 56–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 51–59 | 49–60 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 11% | 95% | |
| 71 | 15% | 84% | |
| 72 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 73 | 17% | 49% | |
| 74 | 14% | 32% | |
| 75 | 9% | 18% | |
| 76 | 5% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 11% | 91% | Majority |
| 69 | 21% | 80% | |
| 70 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 71 | 15% | 40% | |
| 72 | 11% | 26% | |
| 73 | 8% | 14% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 8% | 94% | |
| 63 | 11% | 86% | Last Result |
| 64 | 15% | 74% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 60% | |
| 66 | 21% | 41% | |
| 67 | 11% | 20% | |
| 68 | 6% | 9% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 5% | 98% | |
| 60 | 9% | 93% | |
| 61 | 22% | 84% | |
| 62 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 44% | |
| 64 | 11% | 29% | |
| 65 | 10% | 18% | |
| 66 | 4% | 8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 13% | 94% | |
| 58 | 17% | 81% | |
| 59 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 45% | |
| 61 | 13% | 30% | |
| 62 | 8% | 17% | |
| 63 | 5% | 9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 8% | 94% | Last Result |
| 53 | 14% | 85% | |
| 54 | 17% | 71% | Median |
| 55 | 19% | 54% | |
| 56 | 16% | 35% | |
| 57 | 12% | 19% | |
| 58 | 5% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 1–14 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.41%