Opinion Poll by Top Position, 11–14 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 24.5% | 23.0–26.2% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 22.4% | 20.9–24.0% | 20.5–24.5% | 20.1–24.9% | 19.4–25.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 18.2% | 16.8–19.7% | 16.4–20.1% | 16.1–20.5% | 15.4–21.2% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.5–12.9% | 10.2–13.3% | 10.0–13.6% | 9.4–14.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 34 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 36 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 28 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 12% | 96% | |
| 33 | 14% | 83% | |
| 34 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 50% | |
| 36 | 10% | 30% | |
| 37 | 7% | 20% | |
| 38 | 8% | 12% | |
| 39 | 4% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 11% | 98% | |
| 33 | 9% | 86% | |
| 34 | 13% | 77% | |
| 35 | 11% | 64% | |
| 36 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 37 | 24% | 41% | |
| 38 | 14% | 17% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98% | |
| 26 | 14% | 93% | |
| 27 | 14% | 79% | |
| 28 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 43% | |
| 30 | 11% | 28% | |
| 31 | 11% | 16% | |
| 32 | 5% | 5% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 14 | 19% | 97% | |
| 15 | 41% | 78% | Median |
| 16 | 28% | 37% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 9% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 18% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 53% | 82% | Median |
| 10 | 26% | 29% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 31% | 97% | |
| 6 | 38% | 66% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 28% | |
| 8 | 15% | 16% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 25% | 98% | |
| 6 | 48% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 25% | |
| 8 | 10% | 17% | |
| 9 | 6% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 73 | 98.7% | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–77 | 67–78 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 70 | 82% | 67–73 | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 49 | 64 | 4% | 61–67 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 62 | 1.3% | 59–65 | 58–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 56 | 0% | 53–59 | 52–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 49 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 45–54 | 44–55 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 96% | |
| 70 | 9% | 92% | |
| 71 | 10% | 83% | |
| 72 | 15% | 73% | |
| 73 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 74 | 17% | 41% | |
| 75 | 12% | 24% | |
| 76 | 7% | 12% | |
| 77 | 4% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 6% | 96% | |
| 67 | 8% | 91% | |
| 68 | 10% | 82% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 72% | |
| 70 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 71 | 18% | 41% | |
| 72 | 11% | 22% | |
| 73 | 7% | 11% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 5% | 96% | |
| 61 | 9% | 91% | |
| 62 | 11% | 81% | |
| 63 | 15% | 70% | |
| 64 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 65 | 18% | 39% | |
| 66 | 10% | 22% | |
| 67 | 7% | 11% | |
| 68 | 4% | 4% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 7% | 95% | |
| 60 | 12% | 88% | |
| 61 | 17% | 76% | Median |
| 62 | 16% | 59% | |
| 63 | 15% | 43% | Last Result |
| 64 | 10% | 27% | |
| 65 | 9% | 17% | |
| 66 | 5% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 4% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 53 | 7% | 95% | |
| 54 | 12% | 88% | |
| 55 | 19% | 75% | Median |
| 56 | 19% | 57% | |
| 57 | 12% | 38% | |
| 58 | 10% | 26% | |
| 59 | 8% | 17% | |
| 60 | 5% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 10% | 93% | Last Result |
| 48 | 16% | 83% | |
| 49 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 49% | |
| 51 | 13% | 35% | |
| 52 | 10% | 21% | |
| 53 | 6% | 11% | |
| 54 | 4% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Top Position
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–14 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.29%