Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 11–15 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 25.1% 23.7–26.6% 23.3–27.0% 23.0–27.4% 22.3–28.1%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 20.3% 19.1–21.7% 18.7–22.1% 18.4–22.5% 17.8–23.1%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 19.4% 18.1–20.8% 17.8–21.2% 17.5–21.5% 16.9–22.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.8% 14.7–17.1% 14.3–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.5–18.4%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.5% 5.5–9.0%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.5% 4.8–6.3% 4.6–6.6% 4.5–6.8% 4.1–7.2%
Partit Popular 8.5% 5.4% 4.7–6.3% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 34 32–36 31–37 31–38 30–39
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 31 29–32 28–33 27–34 26–35
Junts per Catalunya 29 29 26–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–24
Catalunya en Comú 11 8 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 7 5–8 5–8 4–9 3–9
Partit Popular 11 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 3–9

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 5% 98.7%  
32 12% 94%  
33 14% 82%  
34 32% 68% Median
35 19% 36%  
36 8% 17%  
37 5% 9%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 97%  
29 15% 93%  
30 15% 78%  
31 33% 63% Median
32 23% 30%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.8%  
26 9% 98.5%  
27 7% 90%  
28 10% 83%  
29 29% 73% Last Result, Median
30 19% 44%  
31 17% 25%  
32 7% 8%  
33 0.6% 1.1%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100% Last Result
17 1.3% 99.5%  
18 7% 98%  
19 20% 92%  
20 12% 72%  
21 11% 60% Median
22 30% 49%  
23 17% 19%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 19% 97%  
7 16% 78%  
8 49% 62% Median
9 12% 13%  
10 0.6% 1.1%  
11 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 1.2% 98%  
5 24% 97%  
6 11% 73%  
7 14% 62% Median
8 45% 48%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 3% 98%  
5 39% 95%  
6 40% 56% Median
7 11% 17%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 68 61% 66–71 65–72 65–72 63–74
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 68 54% 65–70 64–70 63–71 62–73
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 67 39% 64–69 63–70 63–70 61–72
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 61 0.1% 58–63 57–64 57–65 56–67
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 60 0% 57–62 57–63 56–64 54–65
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú 47 59 0% 56–62 56–62 55–63 54–64

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
64 1.5% 99.3%  
65 6% 98%  
66 15% 92%  
67 16% 77%  
68 16% 61% Majority
69 17% 46% Median
70 15% 29%  
71 7% 13%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100% Last Result
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.6%  
63 2% 98.8%  
64 5% 97%  
65 9% 92%  
66 13% 82%  
67 16% 70%  
68 21% 54% Median, Majority
69 19% 33%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 1.5% 99.1%  
63 4% 98%  
64 7% 94%  
65 15% 87%  
66 17% 71%  
67 16% 54% Median
68 16% 39% Majority
69 15% 23%  
70 6% 8%  
71 1.5% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.5%  
57 4% 98.6%  
58 10% 95%  
59 14% 84%  
60 16% 71%  
61 18% 55% Median
62 18% 37%  
63 10% 19%  
64 5% 9%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 3% 98%  
57 7% 95%  
58 9% 88%  
59 13% 78%  
60 23% 66% Median
61 25% 43%  
62 12% 18%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 1.3% 99.5%  
55 3% 98%  
56 8% 95%  
57 11% 87%  
58 16% 76%  
59 16% 60%  
60 14% 44% Median
61 14% 30%  
62 11% 16%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.9% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations