Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 13–15 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 22.1% | 20.3–24.1% | 19.8–24.6% | 19.4–25.1% | 18.5–26.1% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 21.4% | 19.6–23.3% | 19.1–23.9% | 18.7–24.4% | 17.8–25.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 17.5% | 15.9–19.3% | 15.4–19.8% | 15.0–20.3% | 14.3–21.2% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 15.5–18.9% | 15.1–19.4% | 14.7–19.9% | 13.9–20.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.3% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.2–11.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.2–8.6% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.9% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.6–7.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 34 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–38 | 28–40 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 23–31 | 21–32 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 23 | 21–25 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 17–28 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 9 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 11% | 92% | |
| 32 | 18% | 81% | |
| 33 | 12% | 63% | |
| 34 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 39% | |
| 36 | 9% | 24% | |
| 37 | 9% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 26 | 11% | 95% | |
| 27 | 10% | 83% | |
| 28 | 18% | 74% | |
| 29 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 40% | |
| 31 | 15% | 26% | |
| 32 | 5% | 11% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 9% | 98% | |
| 24 | 15% | 89% | |
| 25 | 14% | 73% | |
| 26 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 12% | 43% | |
| 28 | 10% | 31% | |
| 29 | 13% | 21% | Last Result |
| 30 | 4% | 7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 3% | 94% | |
| 21 | 5% | 91% | |
| 22 | 21% | 86% | |
| 23 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 34% | |
| 25 | 9% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 21% | 96% | |
| 9 | 35% | 76% | Median |
| 10 | 9% | 41% | |
| 11 | 22% | 32% | Last Result |
| 12 | 7% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98% | |
| 6 | 4% | 92% | |
| 7 | 9% | 88% | |
| 8 | 49% | 79% | Median |
| 9 | 25% | 30% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 4% | 94% | |
| 5 | 36% | 90% | |
| 6 | 28% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 26% | |
| 8 | 7% | 12% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 70 | 77% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 68 | 56% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–75 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 67 | 44% | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 60–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 66 | 32% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–71 | 59–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 60 | 0.3% | 56–63 | 55–64 | 55–65 | 53–67 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 58 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 50–64 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 93% | |
| 67 | 9% | 87% | |
| 68 | 12% | 77% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 70 | 16% | 50% | |
| 71 | 12% | 34% | |
| 72 | 9% | 22% | |
| 73 | 6% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 6% | 94% | |
| 65 | 9% | 88% | |
| 66 | 10% | 79% | |
| 67 | 13% | 69% | |
| 68 | 13% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 42% | |
| 70 | 12% | 27% | |
| 71 | 6% | 14% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 64 | 6% | 92% | |
| 65 | 12% | 86% | |
| 66 | 15% | 73% | |
| 67 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 44% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 31% | |
| 70 | 9% | 21% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 4% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 96% | |
| 63 | 9% | 91% | |
| 64 | 13% | 83% | |
| 65 | 13% | 70% | |
| 66 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 44% | |
| 68 | 10% | 32% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 22% | |
| 70 | 7% | 12% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 94% | |
| 57 | 9% | 89% | |
| 58 | 10% | 81% | |
| 59 | 13% | 71% | |
| 60 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 17% | 43% | |
| 62 | 11% | 26% | |
| 63 | 6% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 94% | |
| 55 | 8% | 88% | |
| 56 | 13% | 80% | |
| 57 | 16% | 66% | |
| 58 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 37% | |
| 60 | 9% | 24% | |
| 61 | 7% | 14% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.62%