Opinion Poll by Netquest for L’Indépendant, 12–16 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 23.6% | 21.8–25.4% | 21.3–26.0% | 20.9–26.4% | 20.1–27.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 22.0% | 20.3–23.9% | 19.8–24.4% | 19.4–24.8% | 18.6–25.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 17.1% | 15.6–18.8% | 15.2–19.3% | 14.8–19.7% | 14.1–20.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.7% | 13.3–17.2% | 12.9–17.6% | 12.3–18.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.4% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.1% | 5.1–8.4% | 4.7–9.0% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.8–7.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–39 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 34 | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–40 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 21–31 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 16–24 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 5–12 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–11 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 93% | |
| 31 | 19% | 88% | |
| 32 | 17% | 68% | |
| 33 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 19% | 36% | |
| 35 | 7% | 16% | |
| 36 | 5% | 10% | |
| 37 | 2% | 5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 10% | 97% | |
| 32 | 19% | 86% | |
| 33 | 11% | 67% | |
| 34 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 45% | |
| 36 | 12% | 30% | |
| 37 | 11% | 18% | |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 9% | 98% | |
| 24 | 13% | 89% | |
| 25 | 18% | 76% | |
| 26 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 27 | 12% | 38% | |
| 28 | 7% | 25% | |
| 29 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 5% | 95% | |
| 18 | 13% | 90% | |
| 19 | 17% | 77% | |
| 20 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 47% | |
| 22 | 23% | 38% | |
| 23 | 12% | 16% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 29% | 97% | |
| 9 | 47% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 22% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 24% | 84% | |
| 7 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 42% | |
| 9 | 7% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 97% | |
| 5 | 31% | 94% | |
| 6 | 33% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 29% | |
| 8 | 9% | 15% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 69 | 72% | 66–72 | 65–74 | 64–74 | 62–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 67 | 44% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 60–74 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 66 | 28% | 63–69 | 61–70 | 61–71 | 59–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 61 | 1.2% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 54–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 60 | 0.3% | 57–63 | 56–65 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 59 | 0.1% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 52–66 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 96% | |
| 66 | 8% | 91% | |
| 67 | 10% | 83% | |
| 68 | 12% | 72% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 18% | 45% | |
| 71 | 11% | 27% | |
| 72 | 6% | 16% | |
| 73 | 4% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 4% | 96% | |
| 64 | 8% | 92% | |
| 65 | 11% | 84% | |
| 66 | 13% | 72% | |
| 67 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 44% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 30% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 6% | 90% | Last Result |
| 64 | 11% | 84% | |
| 65 | 18% | 73% | |
| 66 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 40% | |
| 68 | 10% | 28% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 17% | |
| 70 | 5% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 7% | 92% | |
| 59 | 10% | 85% | |
| 60 | 13% | 75% | |
| 61 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 62 | 16% | 48% | |
| 63 | 12% | 32% | |
| 64 | 8% | 20% | |
| 65 | 6% | 12% | |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 10% | 84% | |
| 59 | 12% | 74% | |
| 60 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 47% | |
| 62 | 11% | 28% | |
| 63 | 7% | 17% | |
| 64 | 4% | 10% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 95% | |
| 56 | 7% | 91% | |
| 57 | 12% | 83% | |
| 58 | 15% | 72% | |
| 59 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 60 | 14% | 42% | |
| 61 | 11% | 29% | |
| 62 | 9% | 17% | |
| 63 | 4% | 9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Netquest
- Commissioner(s): L’Indépendant
- Fieldwork period: 12–16 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 900
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.75%