Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periòdic, 15–17 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 22.5% 20.7–24.5% 20.2–25.0% 19.7–25.5% 18.9–26.5%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 21.2% 19.5–23.2% 19.0–23.7% 18.5–24.2% 17.7–25.2%
Junts per Catalunya 39.6% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.9% 14.3–17.6% 13.9–18.1% 13.5–18.6% 12.8–19.4%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.5% 4.6–6.7% 4.3–7.0% 4.1–7.3% 3.7–7.9%
Partit Popular 8.5% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.3–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 31 27–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 32 29–35 29–36 29–37 26–38
Junts per Catalunya 29 29 26–31 24–32 24–33 23–35
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 22 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–25
Catalunya en Comú 11 10 8–12 8–13 8–14 7–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 4–8 3–9 3–9 3–10
Partit Popular 11 5 3–7 3–8 3–8 3–9

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
26 4% 99.2%  
27 6% 95%  
28 7% 89%  
29 12% 82%  
30 16% 70%  
31 22% 54% Median
32 10% 32%  
33 12% 22%  
34 7% 10%  
35 2% 3%  
36 1.0% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.3%  
28 1.0% 98.6%  
29 10% 98%  
30 18% 88%  
31 13% 70%  
32 14% 57% Median
33 10% 43%  
34 12% 33%  
35 14% 21%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.9%  
24 4% 98.9%  
25 5% 95%  
26 9% 90%  
27 8% 82%  
28 10% 73%  
29 29% 64% Last Result, Median
30 18% 34%  
31 7% 16%  
32 5% 9%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.9% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8% Last Result
17 6% 98%  
18 6% 91%  
19 10% 85%  
20 9% 75%  
21 9% 66%  
22 28% 57% Median
23 20% 29%  
24 7% 9%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 0.6% 99.6%  
8 10% 99.0%  
9 31% 89%  
10 10% 59% Median
11 27% 49% Last Result
12 13% 22%  
13 5% 9%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 4% 93%  
5 16% 90%  
6 7% 73%  
7 14% 66%  
8 42% 52% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 14% 99.7%  
4 6% 86%  
5 44% 80% Median
6 22% 36%  
7 9% 14%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú 60 71 91% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–79
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 68 54% 64–71 63–73 62–73 61–75
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 67 46% 64–71 62–72 62–73 60–74
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú 47 64 10% 60–68 59–69 58–69 56–71
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 49 61 1.1% 57–65 56–66 55–67 54–68
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 57 0% 53–61 52–61 51–62 49–64

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 6% 91% Majority
69 12% 85%  
70 16% 73%  
71 15% 57% Median
72 12% 42%  
73 9% 31%  
74 7% 21%  
75 6% 14%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100% Last Result
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 5% 97%  
64 7% 92%  
65 8% 86%  
66 12% 78%  
67 12% 66%  
68 14% 54% Majority
69 12% 40% Median
70 11% 27%  
71 7% 16%  
72 4% 9%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.8% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 98.8%  
62 3% 98%  
63 4% 95% Last Result
64 7% 91%  
65 11% 84%  
66 12% 73%  
67 14% 60%  
68 12% 46% Median, Majority
69 12% 34%  
70 8% 22%  
71 7% 14%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 1.2% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 6% 92%  
61 8% 86%  
62 12% 79%  
63 16% 67%  
64 15% 51% Median
65 11% 36%  
66 8% 25%  
67 6% 17%  
68 5% 10% Majority
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.1%  
56 4% 97%  
57 5% 93%  
58 8% 89%  
59 13% 81%  
60 14% 68%  
61 13% 54% Median
62 12% 41%  
63 11% 29%  
64 8% 18%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.1% Majority
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.5%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96% Last Result
53 5% 93%  
54 7% 89%  
55 10% 81%  
56 13% 71%  
57 15% 58%  
58 15% 43% Median
59 10% 29%  
60 8% 19%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 4%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations