Opinion Poll by Feedback for The National, 11–18 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.7% | 13.3–16.2% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.6–17.0% | 12.0–17.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–38 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 32 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 26–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 29 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–34 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 94% | |
| 31 | 21% | 88% | |
| 32 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 50% | |
| 34 | 19% | 32% | |
| 35 | 6% | 13% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 9% | 90% | |
| 31 | 23% | 81% | |
| 32 | 27% | 58% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 31% | |
| 34 | 8% | 21% | |
| 35 | 8% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98% | |
| 26 | 9% | 93% | |
| 27 | 12% | 84% | |
| 28 | 11% | 73% | |
| 29 | 29% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 15% | 33% | |
| 31 | 11% | 19% | |
| 32 | 5% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 12% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 9% | 86% | |
| 18 | 24% | 77% | |
| 19 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 35% | |
| 21 | 7% | 23% | |
| 22 | 12% | 16% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 11% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 46% | 88% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 43% | Last Result |
| 11 | 3% | 8% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 23% | 85% | |
| 7 | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 41% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 24% | 98% | |
| 6 | 33% | 74% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 40% | |
| 8 | 12% | 21% | |
| 9 | 7% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 70 | 86% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 68 | 54% | 64–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 61–74 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 65 | 14% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 58–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 61 | 0.3% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 54–67 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 51–64 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 51–64 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 7% | 93% | |
| 68 | 10% | 86% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 76% | |
| 70 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 43% | |
| 72 | 11% | 27% | |
| 73 | 7% | 16% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 6% | 95% | |
| 65 | 9% | 90% | |
| 66 | 12% | 80% | |
| 67 | 14% | 69% | |
| 68 | 17% | 54% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 37% | |
| 70 | 10% | 23% | |
| 71 | 7% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 91% | |
| 63 | 11% | 84% | Last Result |
| 64 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 57% | |
| 66 | 15% | 38% | |
| 67 | 10% | 24% | |
| 68 | 7% | 14% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 95% | |
| 58 | 8% | 90% | |
| 59 | 12% | 83% | |
| 60 | 17% | 71% | |
| 61 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 62 | 14% | 35% | |
| 63 | 9% | 21% | |
| 64 | 5% | 12% | |
| 65 | 4% | 7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 4% | 96% | |
| 55 | 10% | 92% | |
| 56 | 12% | 83% | |
| 57 | 15% | 70% | |
| 58 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 59 | 13% | 39% | |
| 60 | 11% | 26% | |
| 61 | 7% | 15% | |
| 62 | 5% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 4% | 96% | |
| 55 | 8% | 92% | |
| 56 | 12% | 83% | |
| 57 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 55% | |
| 59 | 14% | 40% | |
| 60 | 10% | 25% | |
| 61 | 7% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Feedback
- Commissioner(s): The National
- Fieldwork period: 11–18 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.41%